The Iranian regime’s strategy for dealing with the Joe Biden administration is worthy of study, as it seeks to benefit from Washington’s decision to return to the nuclear agreement in order to pass its goals such as bringing in financial liquidity, accelerating armament, and lifting sanctions. Tehran is thus delaying the return to the agreement to ensure that the greatest pressure is achieved and to obtain the largest American concessions.
It has become clear that the Iranian leadership puts the interest of the regime first before the life and economic interests of the citizens. Therefore, it is not expected that Tehran will make major concessions regarding Western demands to benefit from the financial incomes to improve the economy and the living situation. Rather, it will benefit from the proceeds of the nuclear agreement to strengthen the regime internally, solidify its control over its Arab colonies, and try to benefit from Washington’s return to the agreement by all means.
It is difficult for Tehran to give up the countries and regions it controls under any circumstances, except under tremendous pressure, which is highly unlikely under the Biden administration because of the nuclear agreement. Therefore, as long as Washington returns to the agreement, there will be no American resistance to Iran’s control of four Arab countries. At least, this is what Tehran believes, given that the pressing forces inside the United States will do the impossible to prevent Biden from liberating Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen from Iran’s grip until the next elections, which Tehran is relying on until 2024.
It seems that the Iranian regime is relying on its militias in Iraq to keep the country under its control. From here, Iran will continue to strengthen the capabilities of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and its loyal groups, and it will expand this support by obtaining financial revenues through the nuclear agreement and the lifting of sanctions.
Tehran faces two challenges inside Iraq. The first is the presence of American forces, and Iran will undertake the task of evacuating the militias by arming them in order to threaten these forces, and it will try to use the Iranian lobby in the United States to compel the administration to withdraw its military forces.
The second challenge is the civil society uprising against the militias, as Tehran fears the renewal of the October 2019 demonstrations, which may lead to foreign intervention, including by the United States. But the Khomeinist leadership in Tehran believes that signing the agreement with Washington and lobbying will prevent the administration from supporting the popular uprising when it returns to the streets, as Iran’s project in Iraq until 2024 is to deepen its control over the country, as well as seizing its oil through companies that it controls through militias. All of this is based on the assumption that the Biden administration will not respond to Iranian expansion in the region.